New analysis identifies protein diversification as a primary lever for profit quality and portfolio resilience in a volatile market
UK retailers have a significant untapped opportunity to drive growth, improve margins, and strengthen portfolio resilience by diversifying their protein sales, according to a landmark report by systems change company, Systemiq, supported by NGO, ProVeg International.
The report, Taking Root: The Case for Plant-Based Proteins in UK Retail, finds that plant-based protein has moved beyond the ‘hype-cycle’ and is now a structurally growing segment that serves as a vital commercial lever for the UK’s leading supermarkets.
A £2.8 billion commercial opportunity
The analysis reveals that UK retailers risk missing out on a £2.8 billion incremental growth opportunity as alternative protein revenue is projected to double compared to business-as-usual scenarios. Key financial findings include:
- Revenue potential: Total alternative protein revenue is projected to reach approximately £5.5 billion by 2040.
- Market share: The plant-based share of total protein sales is expected to grow from 14% in 2025 to 29% by 2040.
- Category recovery: Far from declining, chilled meat substitutes grew 5% in retail sales value between 2024 and 2025, signaling a return to long-term growth.
- Price parity: Meat analogs are projected to reach price parity with processed meat by 2028, removing a major structural barrier to mass-market adoption.
The private label opportunity
The report identifies a 70% gap in private label penetration between processed meat (82%) and alternative proteins (15%) as one of the most immediate commercial levers available to retailers.
Addressing this imbalance would not only unlock growth but also strengthen retailers’ ability to shape category development and improve overall profitability.
Execution and competitive pressure
UK supermarkets risk falling behind European market leaders if they fail to accelerate their protein shifts. In the Netherlands, for example, the seven largest retailers have already hit a 41.6% plant-based vs 58.4% animal-based protein split across their portfolios, following coordinated action and public reporting.
The report highlights that retailers can actively shape demand through relatively simple in-store interventions. For example, integrated shelf placement (merchandising plant-based products alongside conventional meat) has been shown to deliver an immediate 7% sales uplift. This underlines a key finding, that the barrier to growth is often execution, not demand.
A ‘triple win’ for resilience, climate, and health
Beyond category growth, protein diversification offers a broader strategic upside for retail businesses. By rebalancing protein portfolios, retailers can align commercial performance with environmental and public health goals:
- Resilience: acts as a hedge against animal protein supply chain volatility and price inflation.
- Climate performance: slashing annual greenhouse gas emissions, land use, and water use by 13-16%, across the selected categories.
- Public health: closing 11% of the UK’s fiber gap, generating an estimated £108 million in associated public health benefits.
Note that these impacts result from projected growth across the selected categories included in the analysis and do not represent the overall ‘size of the prize’ for protein transition (which would be much higher).
Engagement and next steps
While a short public summary of the findings is available, the full modeling, report, and deeper strategic insights are reserved exclusively for direct engagement with retail sustainability, category, and buying teams. If you are interested in discussing the findings, please contact [email protected] or ProVeg UK.
Joanna Trewern, Partnerships Director at ProVeg International, said: “The UK’s under-indexed private label penetration in alternative proteins represents a massive opportunity cost. Closing this gap allows retailers to capture a share of a market projected to reach £5.5 billion by 2040 while insulating margins from conventional supply chain volatility. Protein diversification is now a fundamental requirement for long-term value creation.”
Rupert Simons, Partner at Systemiq, said: “Food inflation is forecast to hit 9% this year, and retailers are under enormous pressure on margins. Our analysis shows protein diversification is one of the most powerful tools they have to push back – improving profit quality while reducing long-term exposure to volatile animal protein supply chains. With price parity on the horizon by 2028, the structural barriers are dissolving. The winners will be those who treat the protein shift as a core financial and operational priority, not just a sustainability metric.”
ENDS
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Contact information
Gemma Chapman | Advocacy Communications Manager, ProVeg International | [email protected]
Joanna Trewern | Director of Partnerships, ProVeg International | [email protected]
Morvah George | Corporate Engagement Manager, ProVeg UK | [email protected]
Rupert Simmons| Partner, Systemiq | [email protected]
Editor’s notes
- About the report: Taking Root: The Case for Plant-Based Proteins in UK Retail was produced by Systemiq with support from ProVeg International. It models five categories: meat analogs, minimally processed proteins, pulses, nuts, and precision fermentation.
- About ProVeg International: Our vision is a world where the food we eat is good for all people, animals, and our planet. Our mission is to accelerate the transition to a sustainable global food system by making plant-rich foods and alternative proteins more accessible and appealing.
- Find out more about ProVeg UK.
